Un essai sur la pertinence de l'intervention gouvernementale : les politiques publiques en matière de transport urbain des personnes

Les dernières années, au Québec et au Canada, ont été caractérisées par une lutte acharnée contre les déficits publics. De nombreuses réformes ont été mises en place afin d'atteindre cet objectif. Des arguments comme l'inefficacité, la rigidités et la non-productivité, des interventions gouvernementales, ont été largement utilisés pour justifier ces réformes qui, plus souvent qu'autrement, se sont traduites par un désengagement de l'État. Ces arguments sont mis de l'avant par des idéologues économiques néo-classiques et par plusieurs partis politiques. Même ceux qui ont contribué à l'essor de l'État-providence dans ce pays, de sorte que, la promotion dune présence gouvernementale active semble aujourd'hui être reléguée à la marginalité. Dans ce mémoire, nous arguons que les principes économiques développés par John Maynard Keynes, demeurent ceux qui permettent de résoudre les différentes problématiques contemporaines comme le chômage et l'exclusion sociale. Les théories keynésiennes permettent également d'apprécier de façon globale l'étude d'un secteur qui génère plusieurs problématiques complexes, comme celui du transport urbain des personnes. Qu'il s'agisse de l'expansion du réseau routier ou de celui des transports en commun, les décisions prises affecteront inévitablement la collectivité. Qu'il soit question de la qualité de l'environnement, de la perte de temps causée par la congestion routière ou de l'importance du développement économique des villes, l'État demeure l'institution appropriée pour prendre les décisions en ces matières. Ces dernières doivent s'inscrire dans une analyse de biens publics, qui confère un rôle actif à l'État. C'est par l'entremise d'une méthodologie descriptive et analytique, que nous croyons être en mesure de justifier les interventions gouvernementales, nous permettant ainsi, de s'éloigner du discours habituelle de la droite

Effective Agent-based Geosimulation Development Using PLAMAGS

Non

Using the Electronic Medical Record to Identify Community-Acquired Pneumonia: Toward a Replicable Automated Strategy

Background: Timely information about disease severity can be central to the detection and management of outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARI), including influenza. We asked if two resources: 1) free text, and 2) structured data from an electronic medical record (EMR) could complement each other to identify patients with pneumonia, an ARI severity landmark. Methods: A manual EMR review of 2747 outpatient ARI visits with associated chest imaging identified x-ray reports that could support the diagnosis of pneumonia (kappa score = 0.88 (95% CI 0.82∶0.93)), along with attendant cases with Possible Pneumonia (adds either cough, sputum, fever/chills/night sweats, dyspnea or pleuritic chest pain) or with Pneumonia-in-Plan (adds pneumonia stated as a likely diagnosis by the provider). The x-ray reports served as a reference to develop a text classifier using machine-learning software that did not require custom coding. To identify pneumonia cases, the classifier was combined with EMR-based structured data and with text analyses aimed at ARI symptoms in clinical notes. Results: 370 reference cases with Possible Pneumonia and 250 with Pneumonia-in-Plan were identified. The x-ray report text classifier increased the positive predictive value of otherwise identical EMR-based case-detection algorithms by 20–70%, while retaining sensitivities of 58–75%. These performance gains were independent of the case definitions and of whether patients were admitted to the hospital or sent home. Text analyses seeking ARI symptoms in clinical notes did not add further value. Conclusion: Specialized software development is not required for automated text analyses to help identify pneumonia patients. These results begin to map an efficient, replicable strategy through which EMR data can be used to stratify ARI severity

Combining Free Text and Structured Electronic Medical Record Entries to Detect Acute Respiratory Infections

The electronic medical record (EMR) contains a rich source of information that could be harnessed for epidemic surveillance. We asked if structured EMR data could be coupled with computerized processing of free-text clinical entries to enhance detection of acute respiratory infections (ARI).A manual review of EMR records related to 15,377 outpatient visits uncovered 280 reference cases of ARI. We used logistic regression with backward elimination to determine which among candidate structured EMR parameters (diagnostic codes, vital signs and orders for tests, imaging and medications) contributed to the detection of those reference cases. We also developed a computerized free-text search to identify clinical notes documenting at least two non-negated ARI symptoms. We then used heuristics to build case-detection algorithms that best combined the retained structured EMR parameters with the results of the text analysis.An adjusted grouping of diagnostic codes identified reference ARI patients with a sensitivity of 79%, a specificity of 96% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 32%. Of the 21 additional structured clinical parameters considered, two contributed significantly to ARI detection: new prescriptions for cough remedies and elevations in body temperature to at least 38°C. Together with the diagnostic codes, these parameters increased detection sensitivity to 87%, but specificity and PPV declined to 95% and 25%, respectively. Adding text analysis increased sensitivity to 99%, but PPV dropped further to 14%. Algorithms that required satisfying both a query of structured EMR parameters as well as text analysis disclosed PPVs of 52-68% and retained sensitivities of 69-73%.Structured EMR parameters and free-text analyses can be combined into algorithms that can detect ARI cases with new levels of sensitivity or precision. These results highlight potential paths by which repurposed EMR information could facilitate the discovery of epidemics before they cause mass casualties

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks